Storm Alert issued at 28 August, 2005 9:00 GMT

**Intense Hurricane KATRINA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):**

the United States

probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

New Orleans (30.0 N, 90.1 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 90% in about 33 hours

Baton Rouge (30.5 N, 91.2 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 75% in about 33 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Mobile (30.7 N, 88.1 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 80% in about 33 hours

Meridian (32.4 N, 88.7 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours

Jackson (32.3 N, 90.2 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Pensacola (30.7 N, 87.0 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 33 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% robability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.