Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

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TSR Background

The Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) venture developed from the UK government-supported TSUNAMI initiative project on seasonal tropical cyclone prediction which ran from October 1998 to June 2000.

 Innovation and Leadership
TSR uses cutting-edge science and technology to develop innovative products to benefit risk awareness and decision making in business, government and society. Examples include: Hurricane Frances clickable image
US hurricane total insured loss contingent on the TSR 1st August forecast. The chance of a large total loss is clearly much higher in those years when the forecast is high. For example, a total hurricane insured loss of $10 bn is eight times more likely to occur when the forecast is high compared to when it is low. Clearly if extra reinsurance cover were purchased in the high forecast years a company's volatility in losses (or risk) would be reduced. (Figure taken from Saunders, Lloyd-Hughes and Hilti (2005)). Probability (in percent) of experiencing 1-min sustained wind speeds of at least tropical storm strength (34kt or 39 mph) from hurricane Frances. The diagram refers to the 69 hours starting at 15:00 GMT on September 1, 2004 when Frances was located north of the Dominican Republic. Click on image for enlargement.
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Researched and Developed by Mark Saunders and Frank Roberts
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