Verification Data and Scheme
- Assessed for hurricanes Gustav (2008) and Ike (2008).
- Assessed for all forecast advisories and all cities/towns/places where the NHC issued a forecast wind probability of at least 1%.
- Assessed separately for the likelihood of hurricane Cat 1 and above winds (1566 individual verifications) and for tropical storm strength and above winds (2360 individual verifications).
- TSR accuracy compared to NHC accuracy.
- Assessed at 6 hourly leads out to 120 hours before hurricane passage.
- Accuracy metric used is the Mean Absolute Probability Error (with the observed probability either 0% or 100%).
Results
Please click the thumbnails below to see how the TSR and NHC accuracies compare.
Summary
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The TSR wind probabilities are more accurate than the NHC wind probabilities. This is true both for hurricane Cat 1 and above winds and for tropical storm strength and above winds.
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Additionally the TSR wind probabilities are available in a range of polygon formats and for tropical storms worldwide.